A Worthy Gamble

The Diamondbacks recently signed right-handed reliever Tom Gordon to an incentive-laden contract. "Flash" Gordon is coming off an injury-riddled season in 2008 and opted against having Tommy John surgery. Therefore, the Diamondbacks structured the contract with a low base (.5MM) and additional payments based on the number of days on the active roster.

The signing of Gordon effectively replaces Brandon Lyon, who signed with the Tigers. Given that Gordon's 2008 was cut short by injury, and that relief pitchers in general are inconsistent from year-to-year, I'll compare the last three years (2006-2008) of each pitcher's performance (omitting ERA because it is a poor measure of a reliever's effectiveness):

Gordon pitched 129 innings over the 3 seasons with a WHIP of 1.36 and a K/9 rate of 8.79. Lyon pitched 202 innings over the same period with a WHIP of 1.33 but a K/9 rate of 5.77. Assuming both pitchers are reasonable healthy, I think a reasonable conclusion that that both pitcher are similarly effective, but Gordon is much more capable of getting a strikeout -- a valuable trait to have when coming out of the bullpen with runners on base.

Moreover, the contract situation favors Gordon. Both players are signed for one year, but Lyon is guaranteed 4.25MM but can make up to 4.75MM. Gordon, on the other hand, is guaranteed only 0.5MM but can make up to 3.0MM.

Given Gordon's injury history, there's no guarantee that the Diamondbacks will get any amount of innings from him. However, I like the structure of the contract, and I like that Flash might be able to get a strikeout in the 7th or 8th inning to get out of a jam. This signing looks like a reasonable gamble.

Now, what will the Diamondback do to replace Juan Cruz?